Climate change is transforming rainfall patterns, intensities, and the way water interacts with our urban and natural environments. For environmental engineers and sustainability consultants, understanding and predicting these shifts is essential. One emerging tool to enhance predictive stormwater modelling is climate change analogues. Developed by the CSIRO, this data based website allows stormwater modelling to get real climate data set for what will be likely future scenarios.
This innovative approach helps engineers, planners, and policymakers visualize how the future climate of one location may resemble the current climate of another. With tools like the Climate Change Analogue Explorer, it’s possible to integrate these insights into robust stormwater management strategies.
The issue with climate modelling, is that climate models are done over many runs, and averaging out those runs can eliminate the highs and lows that are needed by engineers for drought and flood modelling. Often stormwater guidance suggests adding a =/- % increase or decrease to rain amount for modelling. The climate analogues approach preserves the highs and lows of real data sets to provide much more robust flood and drought models.
What Are Climate Change Analogues?
A climate change analogue is a projection that identifies locations with climates today that are similar to what a particular area might experience in the future. For example:
- Melbourne in 2040 may have a climate similar to Sydney today under a high-emission scenario.
- Brisbane could start experiencing more genuinely tropical weather and hurricane level IFDs.
- Coastal towns such as Adelaide and Perth could begin to resemble arid inland regions as rising temperatures and Southward shifting rainfall patterns redefine local hydrology.
Using these analogues, stormwater professionals can plan infrastructure that anticipates these changes rather than reacting to their impacts.
What Are Climate Analogues and Why Are They Useful for Engineers?
Climate analogues are a powerful tool for visualizing how future climates may resemble current conditions in other parts of the world. By identifying geographic regions with present-day climates that match the projected future climate of your area, analogues allow engineers to anticipate and plan for significant environmental changes.
Unlike hypothetical models or generalized averages, climate analogues preserve the real-world highs and lows of climatic data, capturing the full range of variability. This includes critical details such as:
- Peak rainfall intensities for flood risk modelling
- Extended dry periods for drought resilience planning
- Seasonal shifts in temperature, humidity, and precipitation
This realistic representation of future conditions is invaluable for engineers working on projects that rely heavily on accurate climate inputs, such as stormwater infrastructure, urban drainage systems, and water-sensitive urban design (WSUD).
Why Are Climate Analogues Useful for Engineers?
- Preserving Real-World Extremes:
Climate analogues retain the detailed variability of observed climate data, enabling more accurate modelling of extreme events. Engineers can better design systems to handle future flood peaks, prolonged droughts, or shifts in runoff patterns. - Localized Insights:
By comparing your region’s future climate to a known location today, engineers gain practical insights into designing infrastructure suited to the projected environment. For example, a city projected to resemble a semi-arid region can prepare its stormwater systems for decreased rainfall and higher evaporation rates. - Scenario Testing:
Engineers can test different climate scenarios (e.g., high or low emission pathways) using analogues to understand how infrastructure might perform under varying conditions. This supports robust, future-proof designs. - Enhanced Communication:
Climate analogues make complex projections relatable. Explaining that “Melbourne’s climate in 2100 may resemble Adelaide’s today” helps stakeholders grasp the implications of climate change on infrastructure and urban planning. - Actionable Adaptation Strategies:
By understanding future risks, engineers can prioritize resilient and adaptive measures—such as larger stormwater capacities, infiltration-based systems, or enhanced floodplain management.
With tools like the Climate Change Analogue Explorer, engineers can integrate these insights into predictive models and designs, paving the way for infrastructure that withstands the test of time and climate uncertainty. This approach empowers us to not only plan for change but also to shape a more sustainable and resilient future.
Why Apply Climate Analogues in Stormwater Modelling?
Stormwater systems are inherently tied to climate dynamics, relying on accurate inputs for:
- Rainfall Intensity and Duration: Shifts in rainfall patterns affect runoff volumes and peak flows.
- Evapotranspiration Rates: Changing climates alter how water is absorbed and returned to the atmosphere.
- Catchment Characteristics: Urbanization, vegetation cover, and soil permeability interact with climatic shifts, impacting drainage efficiency.
Climate analogues offer practical insights by enabling engineers to:
- Design Resilient Systems: Understand future runoff scenarios and mitigate flooding risks.
- Prioritize Adaptation Investments: Allocate resources toward vulnerable areas based on future projections.
- Incorporate Flexibility: Develop systems that can adapt to a range of potential climatic outcomes.
Steps to Integrate Climate Analogues into Stormwater Modelling
- Identify Future Climate Scenarios
Use the Climate Change Analogue Explorer to find analogous locations for your area of interest. Consider factors like greenhouse gas emission pathways (RCPs) and timeframes (e.g., 2050, 2100). - Understand Current Analogue Data
Select a Council area that is a Climate Analugue for your project and InSite Water will automatically load:- Rainfall intensity and frequency distributions http://www.bom.gov.au/water/designRainfalls/revised-ifd/
- Seasonal runoff patterns
- Peak discharge rates during storm events
- Adapt and Refine Models
InSite Water will load the analogue data for calculating a future scenario water balance. - Scenario Testing
Run multiple simulations with varying analogues to test the resilience of stormwater infrastructure. This ensures systems can handle a range of possible future conditions.
Case Study: Preparing Urban Infrastructure for Future Flooding
Imagine a coastal city today facing regular flooding due to extreme rainfall. Using climate analogues, engineers predict that by 2070, the city’s climate will resemble a tropical region experiencing intense, short-duration rainfall events. By integrating these insights, they:
- Redesign stormwater drains to handle higher peak flows.
- Incorporate green infrastructure like water tanks to retain volume and infiltration basin gardens to enhance infiltration.
- Advocate for land-use changes, preserving natural floodplains as buffers.
This proactive approach reduces future damage costs and protects communities against climate uncertainty.
The Role of Tools like the Analogue Explorer
The Climate Change Analogue Explorer simplifies this process by providing easy access to:
- Maps and datasets for identifying analogues
- Projections under different emission scenarios
- Resources to support climate adaptation planning
This tool empowers engineers and planners to integrate climate considerations into actionable designs, making stormwater infrastructure more adaptive and resilient.
Final Thoughts
As climate change accelerates, traditional stormwater modelling methods must evolve. Incorporating climate change analogues bridges the gap between today’s knowledge and tomorrow’s challenges. By integrating tools like the Analogue Explorer into predictive modelling, we can design stormwater systems that not only withstand the test of time but also safeguard communities and ecosystems in a changing world.